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Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:
1) Main effort—Kyiv: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis consist of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and supporting efforts along the Chernihiv and Sumy axes to encircle it from the northeast and east. Russian forces are continuing their grinding effort to envelop Kyiv from the west, making limited gains but continuing to suffer notable setbacks. The Russians have been more successful in their advance on Kyiv from the east, especially on the axis from Sumy via Konotop and Nyzhin. Russian forces are unlikely to complete the encirclement of Kyiv on the west side without significant reinforcements as long as Ukrainian defenses continue to hold as they have done over the past few days. Russian forces have focused on Sumy rather than on their Chernihiv axis over the last 24 hours. The rapid advance of Russian forces on the Sumy axis will likely slow as Russian troops enter the more built-up and congested areas of eastern Kyiv and its suburbs.
2) Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv: Russian forces around Kharkiv appear to have focused on continued bombardment of the city combined with drives to the east and west bypassing it in support of other efforts rather than attempting to take it. Russian troops have not encircled the city or launched renewed ground offensives against it in the past 24 hours. The likelihood of a renewed Russian ground offensive to take Kharkiv in the next 24-48 hours is unclear, as is the likely outcome of any such attempt. Russian forces, for now, appear to be de-emphasizing the seizure of Kharkiv itself in favor of supporting other efforts.
3) Supporting effort 2—Mariupol: Russian forces still encircle Mariupol and are continuing an artillery, rocket, and missile barrage on the city while concentrating ground forces likely in preparation to seize and secure it within the next 24-48 hours. Russian and proxy forces will likely secure and/or destroy Mariupol within the coming days.
4) Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward: Russian forces have taken advantage of having consolidated control of Kherson city to launch a renewed offensive toward the city of Mykolayiv, which houses the headquarters of the Ukrainian navy. Ukrainian efforts to stop the renewed Russian advance have had limited success thus far, although it remains to be seen how well Russian forces will be able to retain their momentum as they enter the dense and congested areas of Mykolayiv itself. Russian ground forces likely must secure most of Mykolayiv city if they are to secure a key bridge to establish a reliable ground line of communication between Crimea and Odesa. Russian naval infantry may be waiting for ground forces to secure Mykolayiv’s bridge before attempting an amphibious landing near Odesa.
Russian forces attacked and captured the Zaporizhzhia nuclear powerplant and surrounding areas after a firefight with Ukrainian forces that caused a fire resulting in a damaged nuclear reactor. The Kremlin falsely blamed Ukraine for attacking Russian forces near the plant. Russian forces seized Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in a direct assault on March 4, causing a fire in the nuclear complex. The Kremlin likely targeted the plant to gain the ability to shut down a substantial portion of Ukraine’s electrical grid; Zaporizhzhia supplies about half of Ukraine’s total electricity.[1] The Kremlin attempted to deflect international outrage by falsely reframing the incident as a dangerous Ukrainian attack on a Russian-controlled facility while Ukrainian leadership leveraged the Russian aggression to call for additional NATO intervention in the conflict.